We’re excited to announce the launch of the brand new EVAdoption Quarterly US Electrical Car Gross sales Scoreboard, starting with gross sales knowledge from Q3 of 2021. The Scoreboard may have its personal devoted web page and be up to date inside just a few weeks after the top of every quarter.
At launch, the Gross sales Scoreboard will solely observe gross sales of the 13 EVs for which gross sales are publicly reported by the OEMs. (Extra on gross sales reporting challenges on the finish of this text.) However with greater than 30 further new EVs (each BEV and PHEV) prone to be out there between now and the top of 2022, we anticipate that the OEMs will report gross sales publicly on a minimum of 20 of those, bringing the entire tracked within the Gross sales Scorecard to about 30.
With OEMs solely reporting gross sales on so few EV fashions, now we have to construct fashions and estimate the gross sales numbers for practically 85% of the EVs at the moment out there within the US. To this finish, we’re excited to announce that now we have just lately launched our first public EV gross sales report. This preliminary report covers Q1, Q2, and the mixed H1 (first half) gross sales for 2021 — be taught extra concerning the report. Nevertheless, now we have additionally determined to launch this new quarterly EV gross sales scoreboard utilizing knowledge for the present EVs for which public knowledge exists. Because the automakers start reporting gross sales for extra new EV fashions publicly, we’ll add them to the EVAdoption Gross sales Scoreboard.
We acknowledge that this scoreboard has restricted worth in the present day as a result of small quantity and randomness of the these 9 EVs at the moment included, however a part of our purpose is to shine a lightweight on the overall lack of transparency within the auto trade in relation to US EV gross sales knowledge. Secondly, nevertheless, as restricted as this scoreboard is, as extra new EVs are added and reported on, the worth may also enhance and supply a small indicator of EV gross sales traits.
Beneath are two scoreboards — the newest gross sales for Q3 2021, adopted by the mixed gross sales for Q1 and Q2 2021.
Q3 2021 US EV Gross sales Scoreboard – The Numbers
In Q3 2021, solely 3 out of 12 EVs tracked which had gross sales in Q2 noticed a optimistic enhance in gross sales QOQ. The three EVs with optimistic gross sales progress in Q3 have been:
- Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV at 162%
- Toyota RAV4 Prime at 50%
- Volkswagen ID.4 at 5%
The 50% QOQ gross sales for the RAV4 Prime — one of the in-demand EVs available on the market in the present day — was spectacular and will probably be eager to watch if Toyota is ready to to maintain up this tempo of provide for the US market in coming quarters. The large 162% enhance within the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV gross sales have been stunning and could also be from elevated provide and seller consciousness and incentives. The Outlander has for the previous couple of years been one of many high promoting PHEVs in lots of European nations, however has by no means discovered its footing with clients within the US.
Of fashions out there all or most of 2020, the next have the best YOY gross sales progress by way of 3 quarters:
- Porsche Taycan at 149%
- Nissan LEAF at 105%
- Toyota Prius Prime at 104%
- Chevrolet Bolt EV/EUV at 76%
New to the scoreboard in Q3 was the Audi e-tron GT. At a beginning MSRP of $103,500, the e-tron GT has strong gross sales of 462 models in Q3.
The largest decliners in Q3 versus Q2 included:
- Audi e-tron Sportback at -88%
- Audi e-tron at -80%
- Toyota Prius Prime at -70%
- Chevrolet Bolt EV/EUV at -60%
- Nissan LEAF at -51%
- Porsche Taycan at -45%
- Ford Mustang Mach-E at -8%
Whereas each the BMW i3 and i8 have each been discontinued by BMW, we’ll embody them within the scoreboard for so long as the German automaker experiences gross sales for these fashions.
Q1 and Q2 2021 US EV Gross sales Scoreboard – The Numbers
As you may see within the desk under, 7 out of the ten tracked EVs noticed a rise in gross sales in Q2 versus Q1, with the Volkswagen ID.4 having “off-the-chart” progress attributable to deliveries starting in earnest in Q2. The 2 PHEVs from Toyota additionally noticed robust QOQ will increase with the Prius Prime PHEV leaping 69% and the RAV4 Prime popping 146%.
The Porsche Taycan noticed a small unit enhance, but it surely nonetheless amounted to 67% progress in Q2 over Q1. The Nissan LEAF, now in its eleventh yr of availability within the US, is seeing a rebound in gross sales with a Q2 enhance of 64%. GM’s Chevrolet Bolt noticed a decent enhance of 25% attributable to discounting (particularly with leasing) upfront of the up to date Bolt EV and new Bolt EUV changing into out there. With the Bolt battery fires and recall, nevertheless, Bolt gross sales for the remainder of 2021 are prone to drop like a rock.
The extremely acclaimed Ford Mustang Mach-E noticed a small decline in Q2 attributable to deliveries being entrance loaded in Q1 and deliveries for Europe prioritized in Q2. Moreover, the Mach-E might have additionally been considerably affected in Q2 by the persevering with international chip scarcity. The Jaguar I-PACE has by no means been a very robust vendor because it didn’t seize a compelling aggressive place amongst out there BEV SUVs/crossovers. However whereas on a really small base of 256 models, it did see a decent Q2 enhance of 40%.
Whereas onerous to make certain, the 53% lower in Audi e-tron gross sales could also be partially attributable to the rising variety of electrical SUVs and crossovers changing into out there, together with the Mustang Mach-E, VW ID.4, and Tesla Mannequin Y. And whereas these latter three EVs are smaller and fewer luxurious than the Audi e-tron, at this stage of the EV market shoppers will usually purchase the “greatest out there” EV till the one they need turns into out there. (We’re an ideal instance in that whereas we’re driving our second Tesla Mannequin S, what I at all times wished was an EV just like the Mannequin Y, Mach-E, upcoming Audi This fall e-tron, or Volvo XC40 Recharge — and so we went with the Mannequin S because it was the most suitable choice for us on the time.)
The Audi e-tron Sportback was launched within the US in Q3 2020, and has seemingly settled in at a constant degree of +/- 900 models offered per quarter.
By way of whole gross sales for the primary half of 2021 for these 9 EVs, the Chevrolet Bolt (20,288) and Toyota Prius Prime (18,862) have been properly out entrance of the pack, adopted by the Mustang Mach-E at 12,975. No different EV broke 10,000 for the H1 and the Jaguar I-PACE didn’t attain 1,000 models offered. The common enhance for the H1 was 8,862 and common enhance was 147.7%, whereas mixed enhance was up 50.2%.
Please go to the brand new EV Gross sales Scoreboard web page for added Scoreboard charts, together with:
- Q2 2021 gross sales versus Q2 2020
- Q1 2021 gross sales versus Q1 2020
- Complete gross sales by yr
US Electrical Car Gross sales Reporting Challenges
There are 4 main challenges to reporting on gross sales of US electrical automobiles:
- At present the automakers solely publicly report gross sales for ten EVs, although with the arrival of greater than 30 new EVs (with an estimated roughly 20 of them having gross sales knowledge revealed for the OEMs) within the US by the top of 2022, so the quantity with public gross sales knowledge may rise to about 30.
- Whereas just a few automakers (akin to Ford) report gross sales on a month-to-month foundation, most now solely report quarterly gross sales numbers — which implies there may be usually no transparency to gross sales traits throughout the 3 months that make up 1 / 4. Which means, whilst you can examine quarter to quarter, you may’t see if gross sales are flat, or trending up or down throughout the quarter.
- Tesla, which sells extra EVs than every other automaker by a protracted shot with an EVAdoption estimated 43.2% share of latest EVs gross sales in Q2 2021, doesn’t report gross sales of particular person fashions in any respect and moreover doesn’t escape gross sales for the US. Therefore you need to use a number of indicators and sources to aim to provide a strong estimate of Tesla US gross sales.
- And at last, of the present 36 PHEVs out there within the US, solely Toyota experiences gross sales on their two PHEV fashions — the Prius Prime and RAV4 Prime. All different PHEV gross sales numbers are intermixed with their shared platform sister fashions (ICE, common hybrid and/or BEV) and should be estimated.
Regardless of these challenges, we at EVAdoption imagine our simply launched EV Gross sales Report will show to be very correct over time. Please go to our report web page for extra info.