The Tesla Supercharging community, which began in September 2012, is without doubt one of the largest EV fast-charging networks on this planet, however does it sustain with the load as Tesla automobile gross sales continually enhance?
Just lately, the community expanded to 35,000 particular person connectors (stalls), which can be found completely to Tesla vehicles (aside from a pilot program for non-Tesla EVs in some European international locations).
We now have been fastidiously monitoring the enlargement of the Superchargers quarter by quarter, which mixed with gross sales knowledge, permits us to test the relation between the variety of Tesla vehicles on the highway and Supercharging stations/stalls.
Because it seems, regardless of the robust development of recent Supercharging websites, the community is just not increasing as quick automobile Tesla’s automobile gross sales.
As of the top of the primary quarter of 2022, Tesla’s cumulative gross sales exceeded 2.64 million, whereas the variety of stations was 3,724 (with 33,657 particular person connectors).
It signifies that globally, there have been 78.6 Tesla vehicles per one station and 711 Tesla vehicles per one stall, on common (with out accounting for geographical distribution).
These numbers are considerably greater than a couple of years in the past. The typical ratio of vehicles per station greater than doubled in comparison with Q1 2018 (up 130% from 34 to 78.6). Within the case of connectors, the ratio nearly tripled, from 263 to 711 (up 170%).
From the Tesla driver’s perspective, a better variety of vehicles per station/stall signifies that the infrastructure turns into much less out there (a better likelihood that the majority/all stalls will likely be occupied), particularly at peak demand.
It may be partially offset by different elements, like a better driving vary of electrical vehicles, greater charging energy (shorter charging time), extra out there third-party charging infrastructure, vehicles faraway from use, and many others.
We do not know what stage is “regular”,” as it is a utterly new enterprise mannequin and the state of affairs may be very dynamic. Tesla was recognized for a really strong charging community, so perhaps it was scaled up at first and now it’s progressively adjusting to a commercially viable stage?
The previous quarters point out an upward pattern, in direction of 1,000+ vehicles per station and 100+ vehicles per stall. The 4-year quarterly common is respectively 986 and 98.
That is additionally an indicator for brand new markets – what number of vehicles have to be offered to persuade Tesla to deploy a brand new station.
In Q1 2022, Tesla’s new gross sales divided by the variety of new Superchargers, present 1,250 vehicles per station and 144 vehicles per stall.
A vital query is what’s going to occur if Tesla opens the community to non-Tesla EVs, not solely in Europe, however additionally in North America and globally? Together with non-Tesla EVs, there will likely be much more vehicles per station/stall.