Common Age of Autos within the US Will increase to 12.2 years, based on S&P World Mobility

Common Age of Autos within the US Will increase to 12.2 years, based on S&P World Mobility


The common age of sunshine autos within the US reached an
all-time excessive in 2022 because the automobile fleet climbed to 283M
passenger vehicles and light-weight vehicles.

The common age of sunshine autos in operation (VIO) within the US
rose to 12.2 years this 12 months, rising by practically two months over
the prior 12 months, based on new analysis from S&P World
Mobility (previously the automotive workforce at IHS Markit).

That is the fifth straight 12 months the typical automobile age within the
US has risen. This 12 months’s common age marks one other all-time excessive
for the typical age even because the automobile fleet recovered, rising by
3.5 million models previously 12 months.

The worldwide microchip scarcity, mixed with related provide
chain and stock challenges, are the first elements pushing US
common automobile age increased, based on the evaluation. Chip provide
constraints have brought about continued components shortages for carmakers,
who’ve been pressured to chop manufacturing. The constrained provide of
new vehicles and light-weight vehicles, amid a robust demand for private
transportation, may have influenced customers to proceed
working their present autos longer, as stock ranges for
each new and used autos had been depleted throughout the business.

Provide chain challenges proceed to rework automobile

The continued impact of provide chain constraints has led to a
lower in automobile scrappage, which measures the variety of
autos leaving the automobile inhabitants and has been a catalyst for
the rise in common age over time. The scrappage quantity for the
prior 12 months stood at over 11 million and scrappage fee as a %
of autos on the highway was simply 4.2% of the autos in operation
(VIO) – the bottom annual fee previously 20 years. It was in
stark distinction from the earlier 12 months, which noticed scrappage at its
highest quantity in 20 years at over 15 million models, and second
highest scrappage fee at 5.6% of VIO.

Moreover, the pandemic drove customers from public transport
and shared mobility to non-public mobility and since automobile house owners
could not improve their present autos as a consequence of bottlenecks within the
provide of recent autos, the demand for used vehicles accelerated –
boosting automobile common age additional.

Curiously, the automobile fleet grew considerably despite
delicate new automobile gross sales as models that left the fleet through the
pandemic returned and the prevailing fleet sustained higher than

Finally, extra autos that had been taken out of circulation
through the pandemic returning to the fleet and elevated residual
values imply rising enterprise potential for the aftermarket

Automobile miles traveled additionally has returned to pre-pandemic ranges,
rising by greater than 10% in 2021 as lockdowns eased and other people
returned to work and leisure journey. In keeping with the S&P
World Mobility evaluation, gentle autos within the US traveled an
common of over 12,300 miles in 2021 and are anticipated to realize a
comparable end in 2022. “Coupled with rising common age,
sturdy common automobile miles traveled factors to the potential for a
notable enhance in restore income within the coming 12 months,” in accordance
to Todd Campau, affiliate director of aftermarket options at
S&P World Mobility.

Lingering provide chain constraints to raise common age
in 2022

The common age of sunshine autos in operation (VIO) within the US will
proceed to have upward strain by way of 2022 and 2023, because the
pipeline for brand new automobile manufacturing and gross sales continues to be
weighed down by components shortages. The rising use of
refined expertise in autos may also preserve strain on
semiconductor provide. The continued Russia-Ukraine disaster stays a
potential influence to the brand new automobile provide chain within the coming
12 months.

The dearth of ample provide of recent autos to fulfill the
rising demand will proceed to set the higher restrict for
scrappage charges, which is able to proceed to offer upward strain on
common age. “Whereas a few of the new automobile demand has been
destroyed, as provide chain challenges ease, some pent-up demand for
new autos is predicted to be realized by way of the center of the
decade. At the moment, scrappage charges may enhance, creating the
local weather for common age to reasonable and even cut back barely,” mentioned

BEV Progress as a part of VIO

Demand for battery electrical autos (BEVs) within the US has been
increasing quickly over the previous few years, with new registrations
rising even by way of the pandemic. This has boosted complete BEVs in
operation to 1.44 million models (0.51% of general VIO), up practically
40% from the prior 12 months, based on S&P World Mobility
evaluation. The common age of electrical autos within the US is 3.8
years of age this 12 months, down from 3.9 final 12 months, and has been
hovering between 3 and 4.1 years since 2016.

Curiously, the expansion in BEV registrations is pushed by
gentle vehicles (together with SUVs), as can also be true for the general
automotive sector. Gentle vehicles now symbolize over 50% of recent BEV
registrations, rising 141% over 2021. Electrical automobile registrations
grew 50% in the identical interval. The rising desire for gentle
electrical vehicles isn’t straight translating into a major leap
in general BEV possession, however up to now is changing demand for
battery electrical sedan physique types, and as extra BEV fashions that
higher match life-style selections can be found, the market is poised
to see extra sustained natural development in BEVs general

“Habits within the BEV market much like the general market –
prospects like truck and utility physique types; and producers
have reacted to place their portfolios to fulfill that desire,”
mentioned Campau. “Curiously, it is not the one similarity with the
general market. BEV miles traveled in recent times even have
trended towards the norm, with BEV’s averaging about twelve thousand
miles yearly, which is just a pair hundred miles decrease than the
complete inhabitants’s common.”

As the quantity of BEVs will increase, it can imply their common age
will start to extend, leading to elevated restore alternatives
for BEVs over time.

Click on right here for extra

This text was written by:

  • Todd Campau, affiliate director of aftermarket options,
    S&P World Mobility
  • Nishant Parekh, senior analysis analyst of aftermarket
    options, S&P World Mobility

This text was revealed by S&P World Mobility and never by S&P World Rankings, which is a individually managed division of S&P World.


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September 2022